Viendo archivo del viernes, 3 julio 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jul 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 184 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 JUL 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0112Z WITH ASSOCIATED
MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR
THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8256 (S24W33) WHICH GREW CONSIDERABLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH STILL SMALL IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION
WENT FROM THREE VISIBLE SPOTS YESTERDAY TO 24 TODAY AND EXHIBITED
FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PLAGE FIELD WHILE PRODUCING THREE SMALL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. RECENT MAG MAPS SUGGEST A BETA GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REGION 8253 (N17W74) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARES AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN
QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION
8256. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ALREADY EXIST IN
THIS REGION AND FURTHER GROWTH IS EXPECTED.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03/00-03Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
BY LATE 4 JUL THROUGH 5 JUL AS A RESULT OF THE C6/SF ON 1 JUL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 JUL a 06 JUL
| Clase M | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 JUL 128 Previsto 04 JUL-06 JUL 128/130/130 Media de 90 Días 03 JUL 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 JUL a 06 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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