Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 julio 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jul 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 198 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 JUL 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND DECAY IN SEVERAL REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. TWO OR THREE SMALL DSFS HAVE TAKEN OFF AS WELL.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
ROSE TO HIGH LEVELS AFTER 1400Z TODAY. THE SOLAR WIND SPEEDS
DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS AND DENSITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY,
INDICATING A DECREASE IN CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS FROM YESTERDAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A
RETURNING CORONAL EXTENSION WILL BE ROTATING BACK ON TO THE SOLAR
DISK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 JUL a 20 JUL
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 JUL 100 Previsto 18 JUL-20 JUL 100/102/104 Media de 90 Días 17 JUL 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUL 024/037 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL 010/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL 010/010-007/010-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 JUL a 20 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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