Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG DURATION M3
X-RAY FLARE AT 16/1821Z. THERE WERE CORRESPONDING TYPE II AND IV
SWEEPS FOR THIS EVENT BUT NO OPTICAL FLARES. THE REST OF THE DAY'S
ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MAIN ACTIVE REGION WAS 8299 (N17W40) WHICH HAS
BEEN SHOWING NEARLY CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SOME OPTICAL
SUBFLARES. THE OTHER ACTIVITY NOTED WAS SOME SURGING ON THE WEST
LIMB AS REGION 8300 (S27W96) ROTATED OVER. THE REST OF THE REGIONS
WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY HIGH, IN THE RANGE OF B6 TO B9 FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 AUG a 19 AUG
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 AUG 140 Previsto 17 AUG-19 AUG 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 16 AUG 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG 010/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 AUG a 19 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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