Viendo archivo del lunes, 17 agosto 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Aug 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 AUG 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL UNCORRELATED C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGIONS 8280 AND 8282 ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPTICAL AND X-RAY SENSORS INDICATE THAT 8282
IS LARGE AND ENERGETIC. REGION 8280 ALSO HAS A SIGNIFICANT X-RAY
SIGNATURE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR TOMORROW. DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD, THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM AS A CORONAL HOLE ROTATES INTO A GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITION.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 AUG a 20 AUG
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 AUG 136 Previsto 18 AUG-20 AUG 138/142/137 Media de 90 Días 17 AUG 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG 001/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG 004/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG 005/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 AUG a 20 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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