Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 267 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8340 (N20W15) AND 8344 (S20W04). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCE 2 C-CLASS
EVENTS EACH. BOTH REGIONS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED INTO COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS. REGION 8340 HAS SHOWN
PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE
REST OF THE REGIONS WERE STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8345 (N22W06) AND REGION 8346 (S30E41).
THERE ARE NOW 10 SPOT GROUPS ON THE DISK.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8340 AND 8344 CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AND POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 SEP a 27 SEP
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 SEP 135 Previsto 25 SEP-27 SEP 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 24 SEP 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 010/129 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 030/025-020/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 SEP a 27 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 65% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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