Viendo archivo del miércoles, 23 septiembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 SEP 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH DUE TO AN M6.9/3B FLARE THAT
OCCURRED IN REGION 8340 (N20W02) AT 23/0713UT. THIS WAS A LONG
DURATION EVENT THAT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II AND A TYPE IV SWEEP.
THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT A PROTON EVENT WAS ALSO GENERATED
DURING THIS ACTIVITY. REGION 8340 ALSO PRODUCED A C2 X-RAY FLARE AND
3 OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8344 (S20E09) WHICH PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 23/0038UT AND REGION 8343
(N38E13) WHICH PRODUCED A SINGLE OPTICAL SUB FLARE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE STABLE AND MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8340 CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CONTINUED
C-CLASS FLARES AND A POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT RESULTING
FROM THE M6 FLARE AND THE ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS THAT
OCCURRED ON 23/0713. PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF THE PROTON EVENT IS EARLY
ON 24 SEPT AT AROUND 0300UT.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 SEP a 26 SEP
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 SEP 143 Previsto 24 SEP-26 SEP 150/150/155 Media de 90 Días 23 SEP 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 020/020-040/040-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 SEP a 26 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 65% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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