Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE WAS
AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 AT 1055Z. REGION 8384 (S28W36)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT APPEARED TO BE IN
SLOW DECAY. NEW REGION 8391 (S17E61) EMERGED AS A SMALL BUT GROWING
B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 NOV a 21 NOV
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 NOV 115 Previsto 19 NOV-21 NOV 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 18 NOV 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV 020/015-012/015-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 NOV a 21 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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