Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 193 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS
ON THE DISK WITH ONLY SMALL C-CLASS FLARES BEING OBSERVED. THE MOST
SPECTACULAR EVENT OF THE DAY WAS THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A LARGE
FILAMENT NEAR S33E60 EARLY IN THE UT DAY. A CME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LIMB OF THE SUN OBSERVED BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT AROUND 0700UT
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. A TYPE II SWEEP WAS
REPORTED AT 11/1840UT, HOWEVER, NO OPTICAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION
8633 (N42E21) AND REGION 8634 (S18E69).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE
FIELD BECAME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOLLOWING A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT
12/0218UT (20 NT AT BOULDER). THE FIELD IS CURRENTLY BACK AT QUIET
LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANY
TERRESTRIAL IMPACT FROM TODAY'S DISAPPEARING FILAMENT OR THE SOLAR
SOURCE OF THE TYPE II IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 16 JUL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 JUL a 15 JUL
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 JUL 154 Previsto 13 JUL-15 JUL 149/147/145 Media de 90 Días 12 JUL 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL 013/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 JUL a 15 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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