Viendo archivo del martes, 11 enero 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 011 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 JAN 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 11/0424UT. REGION 8824 (S13E47) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OPTICAL SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SF AT 11/0116UT. REGION 8824 DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD. A TEN DEGREE LONG DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT (S34E41) WAS NOTED AT 11/1440UT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 8826 (N18W21) AND 8827 (S11W20).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE REPORTING DAY. THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS DUE TO HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 JAN a 14 JAN
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 JAN 178
  Previsto   12 JAN-14 JAN  180/185/190
  Media de 90 Días        11 JAN 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 JAN a 14 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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