Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 012 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. OVERALL ACTIVITY INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13E47) DEVELOPED
INTO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND PRODUCED AN
M1/1F EVENT AT 12/0017UT. REGION 8824 ALSO PRODUCED MULTIPLE C-CLASS
EVENTS AND SHOWED STRONG PLAGE BRIGHTENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
NEW NUMBERED REGION 8829 (N16E78) PRODUCED AN M2/SF IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 12/0138UT. REGIONS 8826 (N18W21), 8827
(S11W20), AND 8828 (S19E58) ALL SHOWED INCREASED ACTIVITY AND
PRODUCED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 8828 AND 8829 WERE NUMBERED
DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION
8824.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS FROM 11/21-2400UT AND THEN
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 JAN a 15 JAN
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 JAN 196 Previsto 13 JAN-15 JAN 200/205/210 Media de 90 Días 12 JAN 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN 015/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 JAN a 15 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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