Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 028 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO C-CLASS FLARES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C4/SF AT 2009UT
FROM REGION 8841 (S30W22). THIS REGION HAS SHOWN A SLOW GROWTH TREND
BUT IS STILL MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. REGION 8848 (S09E54) PRODUCED THE
OTHER C-FLARE; A C1/SF AT 0659Z. THE GROUP IS SMALL BUT EXHIBITED
RELATIVELY BRIGHT, OCCASIONALLY FLUCTUATING PLAGE. NEW REGION 8849
EMERGED NEAR S16E19 AS A SMALL, B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. (NOTE: TODAY'S
10.7 CM FLUX READING WAS TAKEN FROM THE PENTICTON OBSERVATORY
MORNING READING BECAUSE THE NOON TIME VALUE OF 152 WAS FLARE
ENHANCED)
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS HAVE DOMINATED THE MAJORITY OF THE PAST 24
HOURS, BUT A PERIOD OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED BETWEEN
0000-0300 UT AND A PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED BETWEEN
1200-1500 UT. TODAY'S SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE ONSET OF
HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY CORONAL HOLE CONDITIONS AROUND 28/0000UT:
SPEEDS LEVELED TO 700-800 KM/S AND THE DENSITY FELL STEADILY DURING
THE UT DAY WITH INITIAL VALUES OF 10 P/CC DECLINING TO 1-2 P/CC BY
THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THE
ENHANCED LEVEL OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 JAN a 31 JAN
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 JAN 126 Previsto 29 JAN-31 JAN 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 28 JAN 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN 010/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN 025/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN 020/020-015/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 JAN a 31 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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