Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 041 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N27W10) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C7/1N LONG-DURATION EVENT
PEAKING AT 10/0208UT. THE FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II SWEEP
AND DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 240 SFU AT 2695 MHZ AND 3400
SFU AT 245 MHZ. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGIONS
8869 (S25E70) AND 8870 (N20E77) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8858.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS DUE TO FLARE/CME ACTIVITY WHICH OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 9.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 FEB a 13 FEB
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 FEB 176 Previsto 11 FEB-13 FEB 176/176/174 Media de 90 Días 10 FEB 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB 010/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB 010/015-015/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 FEB a 13 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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