Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 8869 (S20W49). REGION 8869 WAS BY FAR THE MOST
ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE
AT 19/1547UT AND A C8/SF FLARE AT 19/0633UT. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD, REGION 8869 SHOWED A 50% GROWTH IN AREA AND NEARLY
DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF SPOTS, FROM 26 TO 44. ITS MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, DEVELOPING INTO A BETA-GAMMA
CLASSIFICATION. AN UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT
19/0844UT WITH A REPORTED SPEED OF 1200 KM/S. THE REST OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS FROM REGION 8869.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OBSERVED AT 19/09-1200UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE SHOCK OF A
FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THE
THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 FEB a 22 FEB
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 FEB 145 Previsto 20 FEB-22 FEB 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 19 FEB 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB 030/025-030/050-015/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 FEB a 22 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 10% |
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