Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 052 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS,
BOTH OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED, WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAS AN M2 AT 20/2207, AND THE SECOND WAS AN M1 AT 21/0836.
SEVERAL OTHER MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO REPORTED. NEW REGION
8881 (N19E53), AND 8882 (S16E69) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD
OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 21/1500-1800Z DUE TO A
SHORTLIVED DISTURBANCE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD, AND MAY BE RELATED TO
A TYPE II SWEEP THAT OCCURRED BACK ON 18 FEBRUARY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 FEB a 24 FEB
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 FEB 152 Previsto 22 FEB-24 FEB 145/135/130 Media de 90 Días 21 FEB 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB 016/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB 015/025-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 FEB a 24 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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