Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 abril 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 099 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 APR 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15E14) PRODUCED AN M2/1B FLARE AT 0240Z AND AN M1/1N AT 2046Z. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND HAS A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE INCLUDING A SMALL DELTA SPOT. NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S OBSERVED FLARE ACTIVITY CAME FROM THIS GROUP. REGION 8951 (N13E64) ROTATED MORE FULLY INTO VIEW AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8949 (S19E43) EXHIBITED GROWTH BUT WAS STABLE. A CME WAS OBSERVED TO ENTER THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW AT 1554Z TODAY: THE MATERIAL WAS CONSTRAINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL ANGLE OFF THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, AND DISK OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE SOURCE REGION WAS JUST BEHIND WEST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8948 SHOWS FAIR-GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-LATITUDES AND WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED FROM 0600-1200Z. SOLAR WIND SPEED REMAINS ELEVATED (500-550 KM/S), BUT THE DENSITY IS LOW AND THE MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY IS WEAK.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 APR a 11 APR
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 APR 182
  Previsto   09 APR-11 APR  180/180/175
  Media de 90 Días        08 APR 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR  034/050
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR  012/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 APR a 11 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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