Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 139 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9002 (N18E31) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M2/2B FLARE AT 18/1557Z ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A LARGE REGION WITH A MIXED-POLARITY
STRUCTURE. REGION 8998 (S13E04), A MODERATE-SIZED MIXED-POLARITY
GROUP, PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES AND SHOWED GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT. REGION 8996 (S21W09) REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE
DISK WITH AN AREA EXCEEDING 1200 MILLIONTHS AND RETAINED A
MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
NEW REGIONS 9009 (S15E68) AND 9010 (N16E74) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF
THE PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 MAY a 21 MAY
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 MAY 253 Previsto 19 MAY-21 MAY 260/265/265 Media de 90 Días 18 MAY 193
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY 020/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 MAY a 21 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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