Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 140 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS BY VIRTUE OF AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 AT 19/0058Z. REGIONS 8996 (S21W22), 8998
(S12W09), AND 9002 (N18E18) REMAINED LARGE REGIONS OF MODERATE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EACH
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C -CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE. NEW REGION 9011 (N19E69), AN H-TYPE GROUP TRAILING REGION
9010 (N20E57), ROTATED INTO VIEW DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 8998, AND 9002 EACH APPEAR CAPABLE
OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. BRIEF ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 MAY a 22 MAY
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 MAY 254 Previsto 20 MAY-22 MAY 260/260/265 Media de 90 Días 19 MAY 194
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY 012/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY 015/012-015/012-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 MAY a 22 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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