Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8996 (S20W63) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, INCLUDING THE LARGEST EVENT THIS
PERIOD - A C5 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/0356Z. THOUGH QUITE ACTIVE, THIS
REGION IS DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGIONS 8996 (S20W63),
9002 (N20W23), AND 9004 (N12W34), ALL MODERATELY SIZED REGIONS
EXCEEDING 400 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, WERE ALSO EITHER
STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH THE LARGER, MORE COMPLEX REGIONS ARE DECAYING,
THEY STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIOD BETWEEN 22/09-12Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 MAY a 25 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 MAY 215 Previsto 23 MAY-25 MAY 205/195/185 Media de 90 Días 22 MAY 196
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY 015/012-012/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 MAY a 25 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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