Viendo archivo del martes, 23 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 144 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C9/2F
FROM REGION 9002 (N20W37). THIS REGION, DESPITE OBVIOUS DECAY IN
WHITE LIGHT, EMERGED AS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK
AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. A SPOTLESS, UNNUMBERED REGION NEAR N07W05 PRODUCED A C5/1N
AT 23/1106Z. REGION 8996 (S20W77) CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, BUT
ALL FLARE ACTIVITY WAS IN THE LOW C-CLASS CATEGORY. REGION 9004
(N12W48) EXHIBITED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE BUT DEVELOPED INCREASED
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 23/1945Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 9002 AND 9004 MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRECEDED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED AT ACE AT
23/1625Z. THE ACE SIGNATURE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A GEOEFFECTIVE
TRANSIENT THAT LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM THE C7/1N FLARE AND CME AT
20/0535Z. BZ INITIALLY WENT NORTHWARD, BUT QUICKLY TURNED SOUTHWARD
AT 23/1830Z REACHING NEAR -20NT AND RESULTING IN MINOR STORMING AT
HIGH LATITUDES. BZ RETURNED TO MORE NOMINAL CONDITIONS BY END OF
PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAY ONE FOLLOWING TODAY'S SHOCK
ARRIVAL. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
DAYS 2 AND 3.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 MAY a 26 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 MAY 204 Previsto 24 MAY-26 MAY 195/185/180 Media de 90 Días 23 MAY 197
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY 017/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY 018/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 MAY a 26 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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