Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 julio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jul 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 JUL 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9077 (N16E44) PRODUCED A
LONG DURATION M1/SF AT 10/1056Z AND ANOTHER M1/1N AT 10/1426Z. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS
DEVELOPED A DELTA CONFIGURATION SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9069
(S17W39) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/1838Z AND SPOTLESS REGION 9066
(N12W68) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/2005Z. NEW REGION 9080 (N25E68)
WAS NUMBERED EARLY IN THE PERIOD TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOLLOWED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DATA AT
10/0558Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 JUL a 13 JUL
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 JUL 215 Previsto 11 JUL-13 JUL 220/220/210 Media de 90 Días 10 JUL 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 JUL a 13 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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