Viendo archivo del jueves, 31 agosto 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 AUG 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S18W20) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C1/SF AT 0656Z. THIS GROUP HAS SHOWN SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 9149 (N12E32) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE AND QUIET. NEW REGIONS 9150 (N11E51), 9151 (N05E42), AND 9152 (N17E75) ARE SMALL, STABLE GROUPS THAT WERE ASSIGNED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EFFECTS FROM THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 SEP a 03 SEP
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 AUG 163
  Previsto   01 SEP-03 SEP  165/163/161
  Media de 90 Días        31 AUG 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 SEP a 03 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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