Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 diciembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Dec 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Nearly all of today's
numerous C-class flares came from newly emerged Region 9276
(S12W72). The largest of these flares was a C5/Sf at 1840Z. The
region emerged from an area of little more than plage to a 130
millionths D-type sunspot group during the past 24 hours. Two
additional regions were assigned today: Region 9277 (N16W63) emerged
as a small H-type group, and Region 9278 (N09E67) rotated into view
as a simple H-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next 72 hours, but there is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 1500-1800Z. The slight increase from yesterday's quiet
levels is most likely related to about 20 hours of sustained, weakly
negative values of the Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic
field.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 197 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 195/195/195 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 011/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 010/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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