Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 enero 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high during the past 24 hours
due to an M7/2b flare at 20/2120Z from Region 9313 (S07E28). The
event was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and was also
associated with a CME. Yesterday's M1 flare (at 20/1847Z) was also
associated with a CME. The first of these two CMEs appeared to move
slowly and showed a full-halo signature, whereas the second CME was
fast and confined to a region off the East limb of the Sun. The
remainder of today's activity consisted of a couple low-level
C-class events. Three new sunspot regions were assigned today:
Region 9319 (S20W43), Region 9320 (S25E01) and Region 9321 (S05E69).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9313 is the main threat for M-class level
events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Most
of today's activity was quiet to unsettled, Activity was enhanced
between 0900-1800Z, with mostly active levels, and a minor storm
period from 0900-1200Z. Solar wind data indicated two sector
boundary crossings during the past 24 hours, which may be related to
the geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next 24 hours. An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for the 2nd and
3rd days, in response to the full-halo CME of 20 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 152 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 010/008-018/010-018/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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