Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 091 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A Class M5 event
began at 01/1055 UT. It has been associated with energetic
post-flare type loops at the east limb near SE20. Coronal mass
ejections have been numerous over the southeast limb, with the most
dynamic occurring in temporal association with the Class M5 flare.
The CME appeared to clear the LASCO field of view in half the time
typical CME's require and appeared to extend from far south of the
equator to very far north. Active Region 9393 (N15 W57) has
changed little. It produced an impulsive Class M4 X-ray event
beginning at 01/1943 UT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Region 9393 (N15 W57) remains a probable source
of Class M and Class X Flares. Other regions with high flare
potential among the dozen or so spotted active regions now visible
include Region 9408 (S10 W18), 9397 (S10 W35), and 9401 (N20 W40).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field declined to quiet levels by 01/0900 UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a small chance of a minor
storm. An energetic event in Region 9393 is likely to produce a
prompt solar proton event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Apr 258 Previsto 02 Apr-04 Apr 235/225/205 Media de 90 Días 01 Apr 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 115/155 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 027/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 020/035-012/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Tormenta Menor | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 17% | 12% | 08% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Tormenta Menor | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 12% | 10% | 08% |
All times in UTC
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