Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9608 (S29W64) produced
an M5/2n at 16/0353 UTC. New Regions 9620 (N12E70) and 9621
(N16E76) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with Regions 9608, 9610 (S12W59), and 9616 (S12E16) are
capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
10 MeV proton event on 15 September ended at 15/1545 UTC. The event
began at 15/1435 UTC and had a peak flux of 11 pfu at 15/1455 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions
are possible on 18 and 19 September as a result of the CME that
occurred on 15 September and a recurrent high speed stream in the
solar wind.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Sep 207 Previsto 17 Sep-19 Sep 200/195/195 Media de 90 Días 16 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 012/012-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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