Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 258 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. There were three low
level M-class events during the period. Region 9608 (S28W54)
produced an M1/1n at 15/1128 UTC. This event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 700 km/s. Data
from SOHO/LASCO indicated a CME visible with this event. Region 9616
(S12W68) produced an M3 at 14/2150 UTC which was confirmed by the
LASCO/EIT images, and an M1/1f at 15/1559 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 9608,
9610 (S13W46), or 9616.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 15/1435 UTC with a peak flux observed at
15/1455 UTC of 11 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
most likely source of this activity was the CME from Region 9608 at
15/1128 UTC mentioned in Part IA above.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 18 September as a result of
today's CME activity and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar
wind. The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced for
the first day of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 90% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Sep 219 Previsto 16 Sep-18 Sep 215/215/210 Media de 90 Días 15 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/015-012/012-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Sep a 18 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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