Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 octubre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327 UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an M-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in the UTC day of the 12th.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón02%02%02%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Oct 179
  Previsto   13 Oct-15 Oct  185/190/195
  Media de 90 Días        12 Oct 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct  013/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  028/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/020-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%30%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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