Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. X-ray background levels
continue at the C-class threshold with several superposed C-class
flares, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E17). This sunspot group remains
the largest and most active group on the disk. It is a moderately
large E-type group which has steadily, but slowly, grown in area and
magnetic complexity since its arrival on the disk. New Regions 9668
(N29E01) and 9669 (N13E70) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 appears capable of an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A single
active period (15/0300-0600 UTC) occurred at many locations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 193 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 195/200/200 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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