Viendo archivo del lunes, 26 noviembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 330 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Nov 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9715 (N06E44) was the lone source for optically correlated flare activity occurring from a numbered region during the period. Several C-class flares were noted from this region with the largest being a C4/Sf flare seen at 26/1354 UTC. Significant growth in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma) and penumbral areal coverage have made this region the most notable region currently on the visible disk. Region 9704 (S20W88) was quiet today as it transits the west limb. A C9 x-ray flare occurred on the east limb with an associated Type II radio sweep (251 km/s) at 25/2317 UTC. At S20, the source of this flare is believed to be old Region 9787 which produced M-class activity during it's last rotation. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9715 now appears capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2320 UTC, remained in progress (flux at 14 pfu) at the time of bulletin issue (peak flux was 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC). The polar cap absorption event ended at 26/0730 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast. Active periods are possible on days two and three due to a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on the 27th, as the proton integral flux continues to slowly decrease.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Nov a 29 Nov
Clase M40%40%50%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón90%50%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Nov 175
  Previsto   27 Nov-29 Nov  175/180/185
  Media de 90 Días        26 Nov 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Nov  006/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  010/010-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Nov a 29 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%30%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%40%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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