Viendo archivo del martes, 8 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 008 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9767 (S21W42) produced a
C7/1f flare at 08/1725Z. Little changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma region. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9773 (N14E06). The most impressive event of the
period was the long duration C9 X-ray event at 08/2025Z. The event
began at around 08/1800Z as a very large prominence eruption and
CME was observed on the SE limb. A second CME soon followed as a
large filament erupted near the NW limb. The X-ray event was still
in progress at issue time. New Regions 9777 (S06E64), 9778 (S15E67),
and 9779 (N29E65) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Brief substorms
caused one active period at Boulder from 0600-0900 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled early, then increasingly more active
through January 11. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream
are anticipated the latter half of the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jan 199 Previsto 09 Jan-11 Jan 190/195/205 Media de 90 Días 08 Jan 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 010/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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