Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 007 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar Activity was at low levels. Region 9767 (S22W30)
produced a C3.8/Sf flare at 07/1422 UTC. Region 9767 has slightly
simplified in structure but retains a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 9773 (N12E22) shows signs of entering the
decay phase. The large leader spot from yesterday has broken up
into a number of smaller spots. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9774 (N12W37), Region 9775 (S06E37), and Region 9776
(N10E59).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the
potential for an M-class event. Two large positive polarity coronal
holes are presently centered along Carrington longitude 355. One
hole is at central latitudes and one at southern latitudes. These
coronal holes will begin rotating into geoeffective position by day
three of the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
day one and two of the forecast period. By day three of the period
coronal hole effects could produce an isolated active condition
especially at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jan a 10 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Jan 189 Previsto 08 Jan-10 Jan 195/200/200 Media de 90 Días 07 Jan 221
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 005/008-005/008-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jan a 10 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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