Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 017 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9775
(S06W99) produced isolated C-class subflares as it crossed the west
limb. Region 9782 (N06W08) showed a minor increase in area, but
produced no flares. It retained a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity with mixed polarities evident in its leader spots. Region
9785 (N10E01) showed spot growth and a minor increase in magnetic
complexity within its trailer portion, but produced no flares. New
Region 9787 (S08E85) rotated into view during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9782 and 9785 appear capable of
producing isolated low-level M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate
levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jan 212 Previsto 18 Jan-20 Jan 215/215/220 Media de 90 Días 17 Jan 224
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 007/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jan a 20 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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