Viendo archivo del jueves, 7 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 038 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9815 (N12E17) produced
a C4 flare at 07/1337 UTC with associated discrete radio bursts at
the lower frequencies. Minor C-Class flares represent the only
other activity on the disc. Region 9802 (S14W80) has decayed to a
small beta group as it rotates beyond the west limb. One new region
was numbered today: Region 9820 (N15E46).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the a chance of an isolated M-class event from
region 9802 as it rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active on day one of the forecast period.
Day two and three are expected to be quiet to unsettled as the
effects of the coronal hole diminish.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Feb a 10 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Feb 192 Previsto 08 Feb-10 Feb 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 07 Feb 224
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Feb 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Feb a 10 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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