Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 065 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare
(optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare
activity for the period. Several minor discrete radio bursts and
multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the
day's activity. At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree
disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of
the activity for today. Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and
showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to
show moderate complexity. New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863
(N18W37) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility
of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole
continues.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one
due to continued coronal hole effects. The remainder of the
forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Mar a 09 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Mar 178 Previsto 07 Mar-09 Mar 185/185/190 Media de 90 Días 06 Mar 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Mar 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 012/015-012/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Mar a 09 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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