Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 045 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142
UTC. Most of today's flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).
9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and
continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.
Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type
group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were
observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen
in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the
southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward
component.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole
effects. Day three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active
due to possible geoeffectiveness from today's CME that originated
from the southwest part of the solar disk.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 196 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 195/190/190 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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