Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 marzo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 072 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Mar 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/Sf at 12/2313 UTC in new Region 9871 (S21E70). This region rotated around the east limb as a moderately-sized D-type sunspot group. Region 9866 (S11E20) remains the largest sunspot group and has developed mixed polarities in its trailer portion. It has produced C-class subflare activity during the day.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Low-level M-flares are possible in Regions 9866 and 9871.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Mar a 16 Mar
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Mar 184
  Previsto   14 Mar-16 Mar  190/195/200
  Media de 90 Días        13 Mar 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/010-012/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Mar a 16 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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