Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 074 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class subflares
occurred. Region 9866 (S09W06) has decayed somewhat since yesterday
but retains the delta magnetic configuration in the trailer
sunspots. Region 9871 (S20E44) has changed little. New Region 9872
(S31E09) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity, possibly including a major flare,
remains possible in Region 9866.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Mar 176 Previsto 16 Mar-18 Mar 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 15 Mar 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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