Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 075 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S09W19)
produced an M2/1F flare at 15/2310 UTC. The event had an associated
tenflare (190 sfu), type IV radio sweep, and an enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 is the most likely candidate for M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become active by 18 March due to the flare/CME mentioned
in Part IA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Mar 185 Previsto 17 Mar-19 Mar 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 16 Mar 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-020/020-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Mar a 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 11% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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