Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 080 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9866
(S09W84) produced a C-class flare and a few bright surges as it
began to cross the west limb. Regions 9870 (S20W73), 9871 (S18W32)
and 9873 (S18W67) each produced C-class subflares, but were
otherwise unremarkable. New Regions 9879 (N15W50) and 9880 (N08E35)
were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced
in the wake of yesterday's proton event, but gradually decreased
toward background levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 March in response
to a partial-halo CME observed on 19 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton flare early in the period from Region
9866 as it rotates out of view.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Mar 174 Previsto 22 Mar-24 Mar 170/165/165 Media de 90 Días 21 Mar 213
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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