Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 053 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34)
produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This
region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic
complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity
noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is
the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835
(S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36
hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New
Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to
produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major
flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near
the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage
associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Feb a 25 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Feb 192 Previsto 23 Feb-25 Feb 190/190/185 Media de 90 Días 22 Feb 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Feb 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Feb a 25 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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