Viendo archivo del domingo, 31 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 090 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1/1F at 31/1055 UTC in Region 9885 (N10E14). This
area remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but appears to be
simplifying. Regions 9886 (N11E30) and 9887 (N01E37) also generated
small flares. New Region 9889 (S20E48) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 may produce another M-class flare as it decays
further. A low-level M-flare is also possible in Region 9887.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The field remains
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24-48
hours. Activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions by
the end of the forecast period as the coronal hole influence
diminishes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Mar 204 Previsto 01 Apr-03 Apr 200/195/190 Media de 90 Días 31 Mar 204
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 016/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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