Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9901 (N21W26) produced an M4/1F flare on 12/1802 UTC with an associated Type IV Radio Sweep. Region 9893 (N20W39) has developed a delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot and has increased in area and spot count. LASCO/EIT imagery indicates that Region 9893 is the most likely source of an optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare that occurred on 12/1310 UTC. Region 9906 (S16E26) has shown rapid growth in spot count, area, and now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This region also shows some indication of a developing delta magnetic configuration. As Region 9907 (S05E61) rotates onto the disk it has revealed a moderate size spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic classification. One new region was numbered today: Region 9908 (N05W25).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9893/9901 complex has been active and has two delta configurations. The potential for M-class events is good. Region 9906 and 9907 are developing and have a slight chance of M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one 3 hour period of minor storm conditions. This isolated minor storm condition coincided with a sector boundary crossing. At the time of this issue the NASA/ACE EPAM data have shown a steady increase in low energy protons possibly due to expected CME shock.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. A CME shock is expected midday on day one of the forecast period. A second shock expected midday on day two of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Apr a 15 Apr
Clase M65%65%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Apr 212
  Previsto   13 Apr-15 Apr  210/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        12 Apr 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Apr a 15 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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