Viendo archivo del miércoles, 1 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred with most of them originating in new Region 9932 (S28E56).
So far this area appears to be a fairly small bipolar group just to
the northeast of Region 9927 (S30E43). Region 9926 (N14W29) has
grown since yesterday and has developed some mixed sunspot
polarities. It is just to the east of decaying Region 9919 (N13W40).
Newly numbered sunspot groups include 9930 (N12W17), 9931 (N15E19),
9932 (S28E56), 9933 (N16E64), and 9934 (S18E73). None appear to be
particularly large or complex.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class and low-level M-class flares are possible from
a number of regions, including 9919, 9926, 9927, 9928, 9932, 9933,
and 9934.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was slightly enhanced (but remaining below the 10 pfu
event threshold) early on 01 May. The enhancement is believed to be
associated with a backside CME visible in LASCO observations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The proton flux enhancement from
the backside CME is expected to slowly diminish to background
levels. Geomagnetic activity from this CME is not expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 162 Previsto 02 May-04 May 170/180/185 Media de 90 Días 01 May 191
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 008/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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