Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 event was observed
by SOHO/LASCO EIT images at 17/0123 UTC from Region 9957 (N08E58).
Another M1 occurred at 17/0754 UTC with an associated TYPE II radio
sweep. This event was optically uncorrelated , however, EIT images
suggest the source behind the NE limb. The largest event was an
M2/Sf at 17/1608 UTC from Region 9954 (S22E40). Region 9957 is the
most complex region on the disk and has developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. The region was split into two groups today
with the leading spot group numbered as Region 9958 (N04E50).
Another new region was numbered today as Region 9959 (N10E09).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9957 is capable of producing an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period was observed at high latitudes at 17/1800 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME from 16 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 May a 20 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 May 157 Previsto 18 May-20 May 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 17 May 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 May 006/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 May a 20 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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