Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Occasional subflares occurred, some of which were associated with C-class X-ray events. Region 9960 (N14W20) produced a single C-class subflare. It underwent slight decay, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S21W04) produced a long-duration C-class subflare at 25/1721 UTC associated with minor radio emission and a narrow-width CME from the south pole. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. It showed gradual decay with a persistent, but weakened delta within its intermediate spots. Region 9957 (N10W45) displayed little change during the period. Magnetic delta configurations were present in the northern and southern portions of this region, though they appeared to have dissipated and reformed during the past day or two. New Region 9969 (N09E67) produced occasional subflares. This region may have a moderate degree of complexity, though it is too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9957, 9961, and 9963 appear capable of isolated M-class flare production. There is a slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active intervals are possible on 26 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 May a 28 May
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 May 183
  Previsto   26 May-28 May  180/180/180
  Media de 90 Días        25 May 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 May  003/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  012/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 May a 28 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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