Viendo archivo del viernes, 5 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 186 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W89)
produced an M3/Sf flare at 05/1326 UTC. This flare was associated
with a Type II/IV radio sweep and an apparent CME directed off the
southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S18W08) produced a C6/Sf flare at
05/1556 UTC. This region, as well as Region 21 (S29W21), also
produced a number of other subflares. New Region 26 (N24W58) emerged
on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 17 and 19 remain the most likely source of M-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to influence
activity levels over the next few days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jul 139 Previsto 06 Jul-08 Jul 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 05 Jul 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 012/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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