Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1 at 06/0342 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, SOHO EIT data suggests that the source was Region 17
from just behind the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S17W21)
produced a C6/1N flare at 06/0938 UTC. This sunspot group appears to
have diminished slightly in complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 19 remains capable of C-class activity. An
isolated M-class flare in this region is also possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. ACE satellite data
confirms that a high-speed coronal hole stream is responsible for
the activity.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active as the coronal hole disturbance
continues.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 134 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 132/132/130 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/015-015/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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