Viendo archivo del lunes, 29 julio 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 210 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 44 (S21W24) produced four M-class flares during the period: an M2 at 28/2312 UTC, an M1 at 29/0023 UTC, an M4/1f at 29/0238 UTC associated with a 380 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep, and a long-duration M4 at 29/1044 UTC. The M4 flare at 29/1044 UTC may have been associated with a partial-halo CME. Region 44 showed a slight increase in sunspot area in its trailer portion. However, the region simplified slightly as the delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots showed signs of decay. Region 39 (S11W18) produced isolated C-class flares during the period. It remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its leading and trailing spots, though the trailing delta may be decaying. Region 43 (N12W26) remained in a gradual growth phase and produced a C5/Sf flare late in the period. Region 50 (S07W06) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1941 UTC as it continued to increase in area and complexity. A magnetic delta may have formed within its intermediate spots. New Region 55 (N14E75) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 39 and 44 are expected to produce M-class flares. Either region could produce a major flare during the period. Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated a shock passage at L1 at 29/1241 UTC followed by a weak sudden impulse (SI) at Earth at 29/1330 UTC (9 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following the SI.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 30 July decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 01 August in response to today's long-duration M4 flare. There is a chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jul a 01 Aug
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X30%30%30%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Jul 234
  Previsto   30 Jul-01 Aug  235/230/230
  Media de 90 Días        29 Jul 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  013/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  015/015-010/010-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jul a 01 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%40%
Tormenta Menor15%05%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%45%
Tormenta Menor20%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%15%

All times in UTC

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