Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 237 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 83 (S17W41)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M1/Sf at 25/1853 UTC.
Other activity consisted of small C-class flares, most of which
without corresponding optical reports. Regions 85 (S08W09) and 87
(S07E34) remain the largest sunspot groups currently on the disk but
neither produced significant activity during the past day.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares remain possible in Regions 83, 85, and
87.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event continues in progress--start 24/0140 UTC, 317 pfu peak
24/0835 UTC, and current flux about 30 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
the first day in response to recent flare/CME activity. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 27 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 90% | 30% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Aug 179 Previsto 26 Aug-28 Aug 170/160/155 Media de 90 Días 25 Aug 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Aug 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/020-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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