Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 215 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S16W83) produced an
impulsive X1 flare and CME off the SW limb at 23/1907Z. Limb
proximity limits our analysis of this region, but it was in a decay
phase over the past few days. Complex Region 44 (S24W88) produced
considerable surging early in the period and is the likely source of
a C6 flare in progress at issue time. Some development in size and
complexity was observed in Region 57 (S08W25) which now exhibits a
beta-gamma configuration. Region 50 (S08W73) continues to maintain
moderate size and complexity, but has been quiet. New Regions 60
(S28W26), and 61 (N08E77) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are still possible from Regions 39 and 44
as they rotate around the west limb. M-class flares are also
possible from Region 50 and developing Region 57. An isolated major
flare is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Active to
minor storm conditions were observed through the first half of the
period but tapered off to quiet to unsettled after 23/0900Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated high latitude active periods. Preliminary analysis of the
X1 flare and CME off the SW limb late today suggests the ejecta is
not earthbound.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Aug 168 Previsto 04 Aug-06 Aug 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 03 Aug 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 028/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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